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NEWS 世界の今と日本

【米中通貨戦争に拡大?通貨と株価の大変動】English follows.

2019/08/07

トランプ大統領が中国への関税「第4弾」を9月に発動すると発表してから1週間。アメリカの株価下落。人民元が急落。続いて豪州、ニュージーランドの通貨も下落し、ドル安・円高(円が比較的安全な資産と目されているため)と為替が大きく変動した。
日本の株価も大きく下がり、リスクの高い新興国からは資金が流出しつつある。BRICsのブラジル、ロシア、インドでは株と通貨の同時安に見舞われている。トルコやアルゼンチンもターゲットになっている。

「貿易戦争」が「通貨戦争」に戦線拡大した。
折しも中国では、長老と現政権が重要課題を話し合う「北戴河会議」が開かれており、習近平は長老たちに「弱腰」を見せられない。これ以上失業者が増え、社会騒乱が起こることも避けたい。

この1週間で激変したかに見える状況だが、実は、アメリカの対中国対策の骨格は2018年前半には固まっていた。あとはいつ、起こるか、表面化するか、だけの問題だった。

先日出版したばかりの「エルドアンのトルコ」には、アメリカが見る中国問題、その対策の根本的方針、欧州など各国の対応を含めて最新の「事実を元にした分析」を描き込んだ。
現在の状況に慌てる前に、全体像をまず捉えて欲しい。
今、世界で何が起ころうとしているのか?
日本はどういう立ち位置にいて、どう行動していくべきなのか?
この非常に重要な歴史的瞬間に、世界の大きな動きを把握した上で、多くの方に一緒に考えていただければ、と思う。

お買い求めはこちらまで→www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4120052192

 

【Trade War developed to Currency War?】
In a week after Trump announced the new tariff plan to China, due to take effect on 1 September, we saw the share price in the US nosedived, Chinese yuan reached the lowest point in 11years.
They were followed by the fall of Australian dollars NZ dollars, and US dollars. Japanese yen surged, because it is thought to be rather safer assets.

The Japanese share price dropped and money are leaving from the market of the developing countries, because investors think it is risky to keep their money in those countries. For example, Brazil, Russia and India, which consists BRICs, are suffering from fall of currency and shares at the same time.

It seems the trade war between the US and China developed to the currency war in a moment.
Unfortunately, Hokutaiga Meetings, in which elder politicians and the current administrations discuss on the serious matters, are taking place in China.
Xi cannot show week-kneed attitude to his seniors. They don’t want to let the increased unemployment rate cause any social unrests.

Although situations developed rapidly in a week, the basic disciplines of the US administration have been set early in 2018. The question was how soon it will be seen.

I have just published the book, “Erdogan’s Turkey” and it is not only talking about Turkey but also about the US-China war in trade, currency and hegemony.
I foresaw what would happen in the beginning of 2018 and tried to analyze and describe how the US sees “The China problem” and what their policies would be including so many international players’ reactions.
I wish you would read it and understand the bigger picture of what are going on in the world today, before you are taken aback by each incident, which seems to occur as if without reasons.

We should have the better understanding where Japan stands and then we should think how we should take reactions. I wish many of yours will join me in such an important moment of the history to consider how Japan should turn the rudder of the nation.

お買い求めはこちらまで→www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4120052192

-NEWS, 世界の今と日本